Not much luck with last week's tips. Fair play to anyone who picked Monfils to win in Montpellier and particularly those aboard Kukushkin to win in St Petersburg; I did forewarn strange things happen in Russia.
With Federer, Djokovic and Murray back in action this week, I'm going for a couple of speculative picks who almost certainly won't win but whose odds should come in considerably should they make progress to the later stages.
The Basel market is heavily skewed towards Roger Federer, and who would bet against a man with this level of serving accuracy! Andy Roddick returns to action after a couple of weeks convalescing, and I like his chances of reaching the semis should be get past his first round match against Sam Querrey. Roddick is available at 20-1 which looks attractive for a player who has the incentive of qualification for the season ending World Tour Finals to play for.
I agree with Sean Calvert's post that Stan Wawrinka is worth backing in Valencia. Wawrinka has had the misfortune of being drawn against Federer and Nadal in the early rounds of his previous 2 tournaments, but on both occasions proved no pushover breaking Federer's serve 3 times last time out.
Monday 1 November 2010
Thursday 28 October 2010
The Ashes 2010/11
England fly out to Australia to begin their Ashes tour tomorrow, so it's worth scouring the markets to look for some early value especially on the overall Series markets.
Starting with the Top England Bat market, Matt Prior is available at twice/thrice the price of the top 6. Although Prior hasn't played Test cricket in Australia previously, he has a test batting average of over 40 away from home. Allied with a strike rate of 80 against Australia and true pitches which should suit Prior's positive stroke-play, this looks a huge price.
Graeme Swann is a worthy favourite to be England's top series wicket taker, but odds of 2-1 are hardly attractive. Swann's odds however may well lengthen should the seamers get off to a good start, so maybe sit tight on this market as the last test is to be played in Sydney, traditionally the most spin friendly of the grounds.
Shane Watson is currently joint favourite to be top Aussie run scorer after finishing 2nd only to Sachin Tendulkar in runs scored in the recent 2 match test series in India. I can't see lightning striking twice, especially over a 5 match format for a batsman with only 2 test centuries to his name. Should Watson see off the new ball, he'll do well to survive the first ball he receives from Swann, so this looks a good bet to lay.
Finally I'm backing Doug Bollinger to be top Aussie wicket taker although i'm holding off placing any bets until Bollinger's fitness is confirmed.
One last eye-catching bet for the faithful - KP to be overall series top run scorer at 9.2
Starting with the Top England Bat market, Matt Prior is available at twice/thrice the price of the top 6. Although Prior hasn't played Test cricket in Australia previously, he has a test batting average of over 40 away from home. Allied with a strike rate of 80 against Australia and true pitches which should suit Prior's positive stroke-play, this looks a huge price.
Graeme Swann is a worthy favourite to be England's top series wicket taker, but odds of 2-1 are hardly attractive. Swann's odds however may well lengthen should the seamers get off to a good start, so maybe sit tight on this market as the last test is to be played in Sydney, traditionally the most spin friendly of the grounds.
Shane Watson is currently joint favourite to be top Aussie run scorer after finishing 2nd only to Sachin Tendulkar in runs scored in the recent 2 match test series in India. I can't see lightning striking twice, especially over a 5 match format for a batsman with only 2 test centuries to his name. Should Watson see off the new ball, he'll do well to survive the first ball he receives from Swann, so this looks a good bet to lay.
Finally I'm backing Doug Bollinger to be top Aussie wicket taker although i'm holding off placing any bets until Bollinger's fitness is confirmed.
One last eye-catching bet for the faithful - KP to be overall series top run scorer at 9.2
Wednesday 27 October 2010
BBC Sports Personality of the Year
Despite the conjecture of whether the Sports Personality Award merits existence let alone inclusion of the word "personality", it's always an interesting market to follow as contenders emerge and disappear over the course of the calendar year.
This year's award is particularly interesting for the fact that there appears to be no obvious English candidate to win, and that the winner is likely to represent a sport outside of athletics, F1, football, boxing or cricket which have historically provided the majority of winners.
The bookies would have us believe that the 2010 award will be a straight Tony McCoy vs. Graeme McDowell battle. It's hard to see anyone else coming to the fore before the 10 nominees are finalised in a month's time, and the media certainly seem to be throwing their weight behind AP judging by recent features in The Telegraph and The Guardian.
Whilst I'm not convinced McCoy will ultimately carry off the crown, the momentum is certainly with him and I believe he'll be odds on come December, so take anything available better than evens on the exchanges with a view to hedging this out at a later date.
The bookies would have us believe that the 2010 award will be a straight Tony McCoy vs. Graeme McDowell battle. It's hard to see anyone else coming to the fore before the 10 nominees are finalised in a month's time, and the media certainly seem to be throwing their weight behind AP judging by recent features in The Telegraph and The Guardian.
Whilst I'm not convinced McCoy will ultimately carry off the crown, the momentum is certainly with him and I believe he'll be odds on come December, so take anything available better than evens on the exchanges with a view to hedging this out at a later date.
Monday 25 October 2010
The Championship - Winner 2010/11
Cardiff play at Leeds tonight where at win will take them joint top of the league. I'm not one for staking cash on individual Championship games where the form book regularly gets thrown out of the window, but Cardiff's price to win the Championship will certainly move towards parity with QPR should they win tonight.
Cardiff have lost twice away from home already this season, but had neither Craig Bellamy or Michael Chopra available for those games. Bellamy is especially effective away from home as anyone who has witnessed his work rate off the ball will testify. I've currently backed Cardiff to win the Championship at an average of 5.7, and will continue to add to this position whilst key players Bellamy, Chopra, Jay Bothroyd and Peter Whittingham feature in the starting line up.
Cardiff have lost twice away from home already this season, but had neither Craig Bellamy or Michael Chopra available for those games. Bellamy is especially effective away from home as anyone who has witnessed his work rate off the ball will testify. I've currently backed Cardiff to win the Championship at an average of 5.7, and will continue to add to this position whilst key players Bellamy, Chopra, Jay Bothroyd and Peter Whittingham feature in the starting line up.
Tennis Tips: Bank Austria & Open Sud de France
Another week of tennis without the Big 4 serves up indoor tournaments in Vienna and Montpellier.
Starting with Vienna, Philipp Kohlschreiber looks decent value at 13.5 especially considering his head to head record against top seed Jurgen Melzer who are scheduled to meet in the quarters. Kohlschreiber has reached the semis in Vienna the last 2 years running, here's to 3rd time lucky.
On the other side of the draw, last year's finalist Marin Cilic's form has got to pick up at some stage, so maybe worth a small punt at 7s.
The Montpellier market is headed by Davydenko, Monfils and Tsonga but I like the look of big John Isner who's available at double figures. Isner looks to have an excellent chance of reaching the semis so is worth pursuing on a back to lay strategy.
Betting on a winner at the tournament at St Petersburg is anyone's guess - having said that, maybe there are other factors at work in this part of the world based on last week's goings on. Certainly Tipsarevic will have fewer backers this time round!
Starting with Vienna, Philipp Kohlschreiber looks decent value at 13.5 especially considering his head to head record against top seed Jurgen Melzer who are scheduled to meet in the quarters. Kohlschreiber has reached the semis in Vienna the last 2 years running, here's to 3rd time lucky.
On the other side of the draw, last year's finalist Marin Cilic's form has got to pick up at some stage, so maybe worth a small punt at 7s.
The Montpellier market is headed by Davydenko, Monfils and Tsonga but I like the look of big John Isner who's available at double figures. Isner looks to have an excellent chance of reaching the semis so is worth pursuing on a back to lay strategy.
Betting on a winner at the tournament at St Petersburg is anyone's guess - having said that, maybe there are other factors at work in this part of the world based on last week's goings on. Certainly Tipsarevic will have fewer backers this time round!
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